FXUS64 KSJT 251129
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
529 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
BEAUTIFUL FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO AROUND 70 ON FRIDAY.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
THE FREEZING MARK. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...RETURNING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S.

LONG TERM...
TIMING OF THE NEXT MAJOR COLD FRONT LOOKS MORE CERTAIN WITH THIS
MODEL RUN. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. BEST RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY FROPA
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS MODEL RUN...MEX MOS GUIDANCE POP
NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED FOR THESE TWO PERIODS...ESPECIALLY FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH MOS GUIDANCE WAS INDICATING 50
POPS FOR JUNCTION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...I DECIDED THIS WAS
TOO HIGH GIVEN THE DAY FIVE AND SIX UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER...I DID
INCREASE POPS TO 30 PERCENT FOR MOST OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR THESE TWO PERIODS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS
GUIDANCE LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  66  34  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0   0 
SAN ANGELO  64  32  68  36  69 /   0   0   0   0   0 
JUNCTION  68  31  69  37  69 /   0   0  10   0  10 

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.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$