FXUS65 KABQ 301823
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1123 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009
.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND GENERALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE LOW STILL REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE BOOT
HEEL OF NEW MEXICO. THUS...BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP TODAY WILL STAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CATRON...SOUTHERN SOCORRO...AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES WHERE SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD
STILL FAVOR AREAS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AREAS BELOW THIS ELEVATION WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ANY PRECIP REMAINING AS
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS. BETTER SLUG OF MOISTURE AND UPWARD FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA BY TONIGHT AS VORT
MAX ROTATES ABOUT THE STORM. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AND INCREASED
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WILL FOLLOW. HAVE OPTED TO
UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING IN EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST
CHAVES COUNTIES...AND WILL KEEP THE PLAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY...DE
BACA...AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AS AN ADVISORY STARTING TONIGHT AND
RUNNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WAS CONTEMPLATING A WARNING FOR
ALL OF CHAVES COUNTY AND FOR ROOSEVELT COUNTY...BUT SNOW RATIOS
LOOK TO REMAIN QUITE LOW WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING.
UPDATED WSW AND NEW ZONE FORECAST WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
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&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009...
FOCUS TO CONTINUE ON THE SHORT TERM AND THE SLOW MOVING STORM TO
OUR SW.
STORM NOW OVER NRN BAJA CA/GULF OF CA WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. BUT
SYSTEM WILL TURN E TODAY AND CROSS NRN MEXICO TON AND MOVE INTO
W TX TUE. MODELS TRENDING HEAVIEST PRECIP FARTHER S. WILL KEEP
HIGHLIGHTS AS IS BUT FURTHER REDUCE SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER THE SW
AND SC MOUNTAINS. WILL LET DAY CREW PULL THE TRIGGER ON WARNINGS
OR ADVISORIES THIS PM FOR OUR SE ZONES. THINKING NOW IS A WARNING
FOR ERN LINCOLN CO...MAINLY THE FAR S PORTION OF THE ZONE...AND
CHAVES CO INCLUDING THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IN CHAVES COUNTY SHOULD BE FROM ROSWELL S AND E.
SYSTEM MOVES E...AWAY FROM NM TUE NIGHT AND WED. MEANWHILE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING S OVER THE ERN PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND
WED. LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NE TUE NIGHT
AND WED...AND MUCH OF THE E WED NIGHT AND THU. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
REINFORCING SHOT OF CHILLY AIR. LOWERED TEMPS FOR WED AND THU IN
THE E.
NOTICEABLE WARMING OVER THE E ON FRI ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SAT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY WEEKEND ESPECIALLY
IN THE E. MODELS INDICATING A STORM COULD IMPACT THE STATE LATE
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ
.AVIATION...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
WILL FAVOR NEW MEXICOS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
TODAY...BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
TONIGHT. PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE
THE SNOW LEVEL RISES TO NEAR 6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DROPS
TO VALLEY BOTTOMS AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40...BUT MOST WILL STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH WITH MVFR AND
IFR CONDITIONS FAVORING THE AREA FROM GLENWOOD TO SOCORRO TO RUIDOSO
TODAY...THEN THE SAME AREA PLUS ROSWELL TONIGHT. EXPECT PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS IN PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. SPOTTY
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WESTWARD THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE FRESH
SNOWFALL COVERS THE GROUND.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH SOUTH OF I-40. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND ALSO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TONIGHT.
TUESDAY THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...WHICH IS MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FIRE
WEATHER FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FROM 5 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL NORTH OF I-40.
JUST AS THE STORM SYSTEM IN MEXICO EXITS EASTWARD INTO TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
NM AND DRIVE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
THIS FRONT MAY REACH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE WEATHER SHOULD DRY OUT UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY AS A LEE
TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE WITH A BRIEF DAY OF WARMING. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MAY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE COMING
WEEKEND. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS UPDATE...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 22 50 21 / 5 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 48 13 49 16 / 5 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 44 15 46 13 / 5 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 45 15 49 13 / 10 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 42 15 47 13 / 20 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 44 17 49 12 / 10 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 16 47 15 / 40 20 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 44 25 52 22 / 60 40 0 0
CHAMA........................... 44 9 44 10 / 5 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 41 18 46 18 / 5 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 43 17 46 17 / 5 5 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 10 45 12 / 5 5 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 39 9 41 9 / 5 5 0 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 40 8 43 8 / 5 5 0 10
TAOS............................ 45 10 49 12 / 5 5 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 49 15 51 12 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 20 46 21 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 23 47 22 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 46 27 50 28 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 47 29 50 30 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 48 21 52 22 / 10 10 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 22 52 24 / 10 10 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 18 53 20 / 10 20 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 25 52 27 / 5 10 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 43 22 47 21 / 50 50 10 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 43 17 48 16 / 10 10 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 41 21 46 14 / 10 20 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 38 21 40 21 / 10 20 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 42 22 43 20 / 30 50 20 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 37 22 41 21 / 70 90 30 5
RUIDOSO......................... 32 20 36 19 / 80 90 60 10
CAPULIN......................... 48 17 50 16 / 5 5 0 10
RATON........................... 50 15 51 19 / 5 5 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 43 21 45 20 / 5 5 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 53 28 50 24 / 5 5 5 10
ROY............................. 47 25 47 21 / 5 5 5 5
CONCHAS......................... 48 23 48 26 / 5 5 10 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 25 46 24 / 5 10 20 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 26 46 27 / 5 10 20 10
CLOVIS.......................... 48 30 42 28 / 10 20 50 30
PORTALES........................ 47 29 42 24 / 10 20 60 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 45 26 43 22 / 10 20 30 10
ROSWELL......................... 43 31 41 30 / 30 70 60 20
PICACHO......................... 40 25 41 25 / 60 90 60 10
ELK............................. 33 22 39 19 / 80 80 60 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM MST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536>538.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ539-540.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ520-524-525.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ509.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ526.
&&
$$
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