FXUS63 KTOP 292123
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
323 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

.DISCUSSION...

COOL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE INTO THE STATE AS AN UPPER 
SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MEANWHILE MID AND 
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO SE KS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW 
MOVING SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN CA. HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 40S FOR OUR 
AREA.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...UPPER TROF SLIDES OVER IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH 
NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC PATTERN WEAKENS AND WINDS BACK 
AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY. THINK MOST AREAS WILL DECOUPLE UNDER CLEAR 
SKIES AND HAVE LOWS IN THE 20S.  WAA COMMENCES AFTER MIDNIGHT 
ALOFT...AND ESTIMATING A MIX TO 900MB SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH HIGHS 
IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE CWA. 67

MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL CUT OFF FROM 
THE MAIN FLOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTER PART OF THE COUNTRY. FOR 
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP AS WARMER AIR WILL 
MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER 60S...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LONG WAVE TROUGH...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE 
EXTENDED FORECAST. LONG RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING A HARD TIME 
CONVERGING TO A COMMON SOLUTION. WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS THROUGH THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF ON BUYING COMPLETELY INTO
ONE SOLUTION. GFS ENSEMBLES...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THE
SHORT TERM DIVERGE GREATLY IN THE EXTENDED. OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
THE PREFERRED MODEL FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST PACKAGE. CUTOFF
LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES
BRINGING PRECIP TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE TOPEKA CWA. NORTHEAST KANSAS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY. COME
THURSDAY HOWEVER...A MUCH BROADER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK. THIS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCORPORATE THE
CUTOFF LOW BACK INTO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATUES WILL BE USHERED INTO THE AREA WITH THE STRONG CAA.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES
WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S BEHIND THE PUSH OF COOLER
AIR...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S TO 40S
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY A CLOUD AND WIND FORECAST FOR TODAY. ONE LAST BAND OF
MVFR CLOUDS APPROACHING THE TOP/FOE SITES AND WILL KEEP CIGS UNTIL
19Z. MHK APPEARS TO BE BREAKING UP AND WILL CARRY SCT. WINDS WILL
BE NORTHERLY AND BLUSTERY FOR THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK TO WESTERLY TOWARD
SUNRISE AND BACK TO WESTERLY IF NOT BECOMING CALM ALTOGETHER.
THINK MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG.  67

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$