FXUS62 KMLB 220822
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
322 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AT THE
COAST ALONG WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF MARINE MODIFICATION. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING HIGHER CLOUDINESS AND THIS TREND WL
CONTINUE INTO AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID-UPR 60S. TONIGHT WINDS WL BECOME NEAR CALM SHORTLY
AFTER DARK WITH SATURATION TEMPS PRODUCING DEW AND SOME LIGHT
GROUND FOG BY DAY BREAK WED. TEMPS WL ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN PAST NIGHTS.
WED-WED NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP AN
ONSHORE COMPONENT OF FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S WITH A FEW MINS AROUND 60 DEGREES
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LATEST MODEL RUN HAS SLOWED DOWN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE RETURN SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF POPS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
THU-THU NIGHT...OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. OUR LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
MOISTEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY DAYBREAK FRI.
WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHC MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR THE DAY THU
WITH INCREASING CHANCES THU NIGHT (30%-40%) DUE TO AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
HIGHS DURING THE DAY ON THU WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT THU EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 60S.
CHRISTMAS DAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL PRESS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY INTO
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA WILL
KEEP A 40% POP ACROSS THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA DECREASING TO 20%
FOR THE EVENING. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING OFF IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
SAT-MON...POST FRONTAL DRYING AND COOLING WILL CONTINUE ON SAT.
HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE JET LOCATION OVERHEAD...MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND WILL KEEP SMALL POP (20%) IN THE
FORECAST THRU SUN AFTERNOON. DRYING COMES BACK INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT
AND MON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT THE
MOMENT COULD VERY WELL KEEP THIS ENTIRE PERIOD DRY. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM KISM-KTTS NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHS FURTHER SOUTH. LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55
DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE
WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO CIGS BLO 12K FT.
&&
.MARINE...
NOTE TO USERS OF BUOY 41009...A SERVICE VISIT IS SCHEDULED FOR THE
FIRST WEEK IN JANUARY.
SEA HEIGHTS CONTINUE STEADY DOWNWARD TREND INTO THE 3-4 FT
CATEGORY WITH 2 TO 3 FT NEAR THE VOLUSIA COAST. WITH LONGER PERIOD
WAVE COMPONENT HAS BECOME A LARGER FACTOR IN WAVE HGHT. SCRIPPS
BUOY NEAR FORT PIERCE INDICATING 5 FT CURRENTLY...HOWEVER THIS
SHOULD ALSO DECREASE STEADILY TODAY.
WED-THU NIGHT...ENE FLOW EARLY WED WILL BECOME MORE ERLY WED EVENING
& OVERNIGHT...FINALLY BECOMING SERLY DURING THE DAY THU & THU NIGHT
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 10-15 KTS TO 15-20 KTS AS THE PGRAD
TIGHTENS WITH APPROACH OF THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
OFFSHORE MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS WED NIGHT LATE. SEAS 2-4 FT WED
WILL BUILD 6-8 FT BY THU/THU NIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST. FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS IF
TRENDS HOLD...THEREFORE NEEDING A SCA AS AN EASTERLY SWELL BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE.
FRI-SAT...S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON FRI WILL SHIFT TO THE
W-NW BEHIND IT FRI NIGHT AND N-NW ON SAT. WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE FCST
TO DECREASE A BIT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WEAKENING SYSTEM ON
FRI/SAT SEA HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO REMAIN ELEVATED DURING THE DAY FRI
AND GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE WKND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ONSHORE COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON WL ALLOW FOR STEADY OR RISING
RH'S INITIALLY AT THE COAST ONCE NORTH TO NE COMPONENT DEVELOPS.
INTERIOR ZONES WL SEE LOWER RH WITH MINS EXPECTED IN THE MID/UPR 30S
BY MID AFTERNOON. NO DURATION IS EXPECTED HOWEVER FOR HEADLINES.
EXTENDED...DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF DRYING...IT IS FEASIBLE THAT AREAS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR COULD FLIRT WITH 1-3 HOURS NEAR 35% FOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 65 45 73 57 / 0 0 10 10
MCO 64 47 74 56 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 66 50 73 61 / 0 0 10 10
VRB 68 51 75 61 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 63 43 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 66 45 75 57 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 65 47 74 57 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 67 52 75 61 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK
