FXUS64 KLZK 030542
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1142 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE...THESE CLOUDS WILL
BREAK UP...AND HAVE TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES
WILL CLEAR DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS RETURN AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED...AND CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP LATE THIS
EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST TO MENTION A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
OVERNIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS TO MATCH CURRENT
TRENDS. (46)
AVIATION...
UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEAST...WITH DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE THE REST OF THE SITES ARE
VFR AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR. WINDS WILL ALSO STAY UP FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN DECREASE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARDS SUNRISE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CST WED DEC 2 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY INDICATED VERY CLOSE TO LITTLE ROCK AS EVIDENCED
BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CIRCULATION ON 88D REFLECTIVITY. PRECIP HAS
TAPERED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE WEST AND WEST CENTRAL AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE NORTHEAST. HEAVIER PRECIP OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ARKANSAS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP...AS
THE COLD AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SNOWFLAKE THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN
ARKANSAS...OR EVEN SOME SLEET PELLETS. BUT...WARM LAYER NEAR THE
GROUND WILL PRECLUDE ANY PROBLEMS. PRECIP SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE
AREA WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS DOWN
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING MOISTURE...MOSTLY AT THE MID LEVELS. COULD SEE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH MAYBE A STRAY SNOWFLAKE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOTHING OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE.
BIG STORY WILL BE COLD AIR/ARCTIC HIGH PUSHING IN. ALONG WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH TEENS AND 20S
POSSIBLE.
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE SATURDAY...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL...AND THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENSEMBLES FROM SEVERAL MEDIUM RANGE NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE
OVERALL AMPLITUDE OF UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL DECREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SEVERAL OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THESE
SAME MODELS INDICATE A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE MID SOUTH IN
THIS DEAMPLIFIYING FLOW. DETAIL CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM...REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS...WILL BE FURTHER REFINED WITH
LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 30 43 27 43 / 0 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 34 48 31 46 / 0 10 10 20
HARRISON AR 28 40 18 40 / 0 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 31 46 29 45 / 0 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 33 46 29 45 / 0 10 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 35 48 31 45 / 0 10 10 30
MOUNT IDA AR 30 46 26 46 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 29 41 21 42 / 0 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 32 45 29 45 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 34 45 31 44 / 0 10 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 29 46 24 43 / 0 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 32 47 26 43 / 0 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 34 45 30 45 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...51
