FXUS63 KSGF 042018
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
218 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN THIS PACKAGE WILL DEAL WITH ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT TONIGHT. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AND POSSIBLY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD AIRMASS IS PARKED
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. DEWPOINTS ARE LOWER TEENS TO THE UPPER SIGNAL
DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES QUICKLY COOLING AFTER SUNSET. SURFACE
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES TO THE EAST. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE COOL
START...I HAVE UNDER CUT MOS GUIDANCE AND WENT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TONIGHT.

A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND 
SUNDAY...HOWEVER HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. INITIALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AS TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING. THEREFORE...THERE IS A LACK OF
ICE CRYSTAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SEEDER FEEDER PROCESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA...SO
THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN. HOWEVER ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. THE QUESTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS WHETHER THE COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION WHILE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUES AND FOR
HOW LONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATION.

WISE

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

COLD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODELS TRENDED
FARTHER NORTH WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
SNOW TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH A
MORE FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOW ACROSS THE OZARKS. ULTIMATELY THERE
ARE MANY UNCERTAINTIES THAT STILL EXIST REGARDING THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS PRECIPITATION
PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
THEN MAY TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WOULD
THEN TRANSITION TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT. AGAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE YET TO BE
DETERMINED...BUT THE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.

FOSTER

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1114 AM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/

FOR THE 18Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
WEST OR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING. LATE
TOMORROW MORNING CONTINUING BEYOND THIS TAF PACKAGE...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY RESULTING IN BREEZY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$