FXUS63 KJKL 100631
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
131 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/

WITH WINDS ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAVING SUBSIDED TO WELL
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS CANCELLED. LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS LEND LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE NOTION THAT
ANY SNOW FLURRIES ARE ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND...THEREFORE ANY
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WAS REMOVED FROM THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. ALSO DECREASED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES PER
THE LATEST MOS NUMBERS AND HOURLY SFC OBS...WHICH REVEAL THAT HOURLY
DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST. WITH
THIS IN MIND...FELT LIKE OVERNIGHT TEMPS COULD DIP A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE HWO WAS ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE CANCELLATION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST TEXT
PRODUCT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM IS WELL MIXED AND CONNECTED TO A +50 KNOT JET.
THE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAK SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT MODELS DO NOT EXPECT A FULL DECOUPLING UNTIL THU NIGHT...
EXCEPT OF COURSE IN THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS. HIGH WINDS ARE
ONGOING BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPOSURE. WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TREES...POWER
LINES...HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ETC. SO HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
AND LET EVENING SHIFT MAKE THE ALL CLEAR CALL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH NOT MATERIALIZED AS EXPECTED BUT
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A ISOLATED FOR PART OF THE AREA TO EARLY
EVENING.

OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA FOR THU/FRI BUT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THU
FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. MIGHT HAVE A BIT OF A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT SAT MORNING. MOS DOES NOT THINK SO BUT IMPLIED ABOUT AN 8F
DEGREE SPLIT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SPECIFIC 
WEATHER MAKERS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPC 
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LEADS 
TO A GENERALLY COOLER FORECAST THAN THE LATEST MEX MOS GUIDANCE 
WOULD INDICATE. ONE OF THE PRIMARY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES 
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON THE 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 
06Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. CHANCES 
OF OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN LOW...BUT EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO 
OF 0.01 INCH PER HOUR FREEZING RAIN CAN HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT. 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY SO THAT ANY CONTINUING 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PLAIN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/...UPDATED

LOW CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM 
WILL AFFECT THE REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEY WILL CAUSE MOSTLY 
LOW VFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER...SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE. IF IT AFFECTS TAF 
SITES IT IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK 
UP AROUND MID DAY...AND THEN CLEAR OUT BEFORE NIGHTFALL. WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE TO GUST 20-25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY 
THURSDAY...AND START TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GV/AR
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...HAL