FXUS61 KBTV 110619
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
119 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS COLDER 
IS MOVING INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER IS
EXITING EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN IS CAUSING SOME
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AND EVEN TOMORROW. THEN 
THIS WEEKEND EXPECT THE COLDEST AIRMASS THUS FAR OF THE SEASON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 927 PM EST THURSDAY...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE...UNFORTUNATELY TO 
ISSUE QUICK WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF 
CHITTENDEN/ADDISON/WASHINGTON COUNTY. I APOLOGIZE FOR ANY 
CONFUSION...BUT COORD WITH VT HWY DEPT INDICATES NEAR WHITEOUT CONDS 
AND 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN MONTPELIER AT 8PM. VERY IMPRESSIVE AND 
LONG-FETCHED LK SNOW BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM LK 
ONTARIO EAST THROUGH VT AND NEARLY TO THE MAINE COAST. LATEST 00Z 
4KM WRF MODEL SHOWING THIS QUITE NICELY WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE 
ALONG FEATURE AND ROBUST MESOSCALE LIFT. IF PROGS ARE CORRECT...AND 
I'M A VICTIM OF THEM AS WELL...THINK FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY MORE 
WEST LATER TONIGHT...WITH BAND WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SLOWLY 
SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. THAT SAID...GIVEN ABOVE 
REPORT/CONDS...BELIEVE LOCALIZED ACCUM IN THIS NARROW BAND LIKELY TO 
END UP IN THE 2-6 INCH RANGE WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. FURTHER 
WEST...QUICK CALLS TO SPOTTERS HAVE INDICATED THAT WHILE RADAR 
RETURNS QUITE NICE OVER CHVLY IN ADDISON COUNTY...ACCUM ARE NOT 
NEARLY AS GREAT...SO IN THESE LOCALES (I.E. SRN CHITTENDEN/NRN 
ADDISON) STILL EXPECTING ACCUM TO BE 2 INCHES OR LESS OVERNIGHT. 
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 827 PM EST THURSDAY...
UPDATE TO THIS EVENING'S FCST...MAINLY TO DROP WINTER WX ADVISORIES 
FOR OUR VT ZONES...TO EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND LAKE SNOW 
WARNING ACROSS NRN NY...AND TO TWEAK POPS/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BASED 
OFF LATEST RADAR TRENDS/MODEL GUIDANCE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING 
INTENSE SNOW BAND OFF LK ONTARIO CONTINUES TO POUND THE FAR SOUTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND 
AS NEW 18Z MODEL SUITE HAS SUGGESTED...THE BAND HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY 
NORTHWARD SINCE 5 PM. BASED OFF ESTIMATES FROM THE TYX 
RADAR...SNOWFALL RATES NEARING 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN CENTER OF THIS 
BAND FROM STAR LAKE TO WANAKENA AND CRANBERRY LAKE. WITH WINDS 
REMAINING QUITE STRONG FROM 250/260 DEG...SNOW BAND IS ACTUALLY 
SPLITTING THE GAP BETWEEN THE HIGH PEAKS AND WHITEFACE MTN ACROSS 
ESSEX COUNTY, NY AND SHOOTING INTO THE SRN CHVLY IN NRN ADDISON/FAR 
SRN CHITTENDEN COUNTIES AND POINTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREEN 
MOUNTAINS. WHILE ACTIVITY IS LESS INTENSE HERE...ADDL LIGHT ACCUM A 
DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE 
LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ACROSS NRN NEW YORK...ADDL 1-3 
INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY IN WRN ESSEX/WRN CLINTON COUNTIES AND EVEN 
HEAFTIER AMOUNTS IN LK SNOW WARNING AREAS WHERE STORM TOTALS MAY 
NEAR 18" IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE/LEWIS COUNTY LINE BY 
MORNING. ANOTHER SNOW BAND...ACTUALLY WITH A SOURCE OFF DISTANT LK 
HURON IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED WEST-EAST ALONG THE INTL BORDER AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MAINLY OUR VT BORDER COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AGAIN ACCUM SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY 2 
INCHES OR LESS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TO PERHAPS 4/5 INCHES IN MOST 
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS JAY PEAK AND THE HOLLAND/MORGAN 
CENTER AREA. BASED OFF THESE TRENDS/CONDS...HAVE TWEAKED POPS EVER 
SO SLIGHTLY THOUGH CHANGES ESSENTIALLY AT THE NOISE LEVEL.

IN REGARDS TO THE WINDS...HAVE MAINTAINED CURRENT WIND ADVISORY 
HEADLINES AS IS...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY ALLOW THIS TO 
EXPIRE. WHILE WINDS HAVE OCCASIONALLY GUSTED TO NEAR 40-45 MPH IN A 
FEW SPOTS...MOST GUSTS MORE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND A QUICK 
LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES SHOWING SOLNS A BIT TOO ROBUST ON 
DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR MIXING THIS EVENING. STILL QUITE A BLUSTERY 
EVENING HOWEVER...WHICH COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY LEAD TO LOCAL 
REDUCTIONS IN VSBY...ESP IN HEAVIER LK SNOW BANDS ACROSS NRN NY 
WHERE WHITEOUT CONDS AND TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDS LIKELY. HAVE A 
NICE EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS OF 334 PM EST THURSDAY...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE
ALLOWING THE PRIMARY BAND...OF LK ONTARIO...IS SHIFTING SOUTH.
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING. IN VT
THE PRIMARY LAKE EFFECT BAND IS IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GREENS...AND
AS THE BAND MOVES SOUTH IT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
GREENS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A TROUGH WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
TIES TO LK SUPERIOR WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...GIVING THE NORTHERN GREENS AND NORTHER DACKS ADDITIONAL
SNOWS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HENCE WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND LAKE EFFECT WARNING UNTIL SHOWERS HAVE
TRULY DIMINISHED. ADDITIONAL SNOW OF 1-6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE GREENS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS AS THIS
IS THE AREA THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY THE PRIMARY BAND
OFF OF LK ONTARIO.

WITH THE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...WESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. GUSTS
TO 40-50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...THE
ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE GREENS. ELSEWHERE
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WE WILL SEE A
BIT OF A LULL TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE AS WE WILL NOT MIX TO
STRONGEST WINDS DOWN...BUT TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY COOL
TO THE 20S AND TEENS. WIND AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING AS THEY OTHERWISE WOULD WITH 850 TEMPS OF -16
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EST THURSDAY...SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS CONTINUE
WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES...MAINLY IN THE 
CENTRAL
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREENS. WITH FLOW BECOMING
MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WE WILL NOT SEE AS FAVORABLE A LAKE
FETCH AS WE SAW TODAY. BUT...WITH SLIGHT INSTABILITY WE WILL BE
ABLE TO MIX WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AGAIN. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY FRIDAY...AND EVEN SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS TO
ABOUT 35 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE DACKS AND ALSO EAST
FACING SLOPES.

FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE REGION OVER
HEAD WITH 850 TEMPS OF -16 TO -18. WITH CLOUD COVER AND WIND NOT
AS MUCH AN IMPACT AS TONIGHT... WE WILL SEE TEMPS DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WIDESPREAD THROUGH OUT THE AREA. EVEN A
FEW SUB ZERO TEMPS COULD OCCUR IN COLD POCKETS OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM AND THE DACKS. ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS. WHILE OUR AIRMASS WARMS A TAD... THESE CLEARER CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR COLD TEMPS SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 235 PM EST THURSDAY...CLDS/PRECIP/WX...CD AIR IN PLACE FOR
ENTIRE EXTENDED WILL ALLOW FOR ALL PRECIP TO BE AS SNOW. SFC LOW
WILL PASS E OVER DELMARVA REGION SUN INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP BEST CHANCES FOR -SW
IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION...W/ FLURRIES/--SW TO THE
NORTH. GD PORTION OF MONDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN OVER
THE AREA AND SLIDE EAST OFF THE COAST MON NGT WITH APPROACH OF
NEXT SYSTEM. SFC LOW TRACK FOR TUESDAY SWINGS SFC LOW JUST TO OUR
N...BUT ASSOCIATED FRNT ACROSS THE REGION..FOR A ROUND OF LGT -SW.
W/ LOW TO OUR N AND RIDGE BLOCKING OFFSHORE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH
QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM. STRONG RIDGE SETTING UP BEHIND THIS FRNT
WILL SET UP TO OUR WEST FOR WED/THURS. STRONG NORTHERLY FETCH WILL
ENSUE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AS SFC LOW FROM EXITING SYSTEM STALLS
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL HIGHLIGHT BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY -SW OVER NORTHERN CWA...W/ HIR ELEVATIONS SEEING BEST CHANCES
FOR ANY ACCUM DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE EFFECTS.

TEMPS...FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED...TEMPS TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL AS SEASONAL VALUES GO. NO STRONG CAA EXPECTED WITH CLD
COVER FROM SYSTEM SUN NGT/MON...AND SETUP OF RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR TUESDAY AHEAD OF FRNT. 850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -4C TO
-10C...DURING THIS TIME...W/ POTENTIAL FOR SURGE OF WARM AIR FOR
WESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF TUESDAY FROPA WHERE 850 TEMPS NEAR 0C. TUES
NGT THRU THURSDAY WITH SETUP OF NORTHERLY FETCH OVER CWA...STRONG
CAA WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA W/ 850 TEMPS RANGING FROM -14C TO
-20C...ESPECIALLY FOR WED/THURS. DAYTIME/NIGHTTIME TEMPS COULD
RANGE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES BLW NORMAL DUE TO PROLONGED CAA ON
NORTH WINDS.

WINDS...WK SSW FLOW AHEAD OF SYSTEM ON SUNDAY AND DOES EVENTUALLY 
BECM LGT/VAR W/ LOW PASSING E OVER DELMARVA AND OUT TO SEA. LGT/VAR 
WINDS FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE CORRIDOR...BUT 
LATE IN DAY SOUTHERLY WINDS INCR FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF FRNTL 
BOUNDARY. SSW WINDS REMAIN INTO TUESDAY WITH SLOW FRNTL MVMNT. NW 
WINDS ENSUE TUES NGT THRU THURSDAY. SFC LOW ASSOCIATED W/ FRNT 
STALLS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. TIGHT GRADIENT DEVELOPS AS SF 
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL FUNNEL STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS(POTENTIAL OF 30-40MPH+...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN...IN BUFKIT) 
OVER CWA...ENHANCING PRECIP FOR NORTHERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z. LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR WITH RESPECT TO VISIBILITIES...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND...WHICH
WILL BE SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY.

06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 06Z SAT-12Z SAT...WNW WINDS 15-25
KTS ALONG WITH SCT SNOW SHWRS PRODUCING LOCALIZED MVFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSLK/KMPV. 12Z SAT-12Z SUN...MAINLY VFR
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. 12Z SUN-12Z MON...AREAS OF MVFR IN LIGHT
SNOW. 12Z MON-06Z TUE...MAINLY VFR. 06Z TUE-00Z WED...AREAS OF
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VTZ006>008-
     010-012-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     VTZ008-017-018.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NYZ026>031-
     034-035-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     NYZ031-034.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     NYZ029-030.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMF
NEAR TERM...AMF/JMG
SHORT TERM...AMF
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EVENSON/JN