FXUS61 KBTV 282039
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS
A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ARE
QUICKLY QUIETING DOWN AS MAJOR STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. STILL BREEZY BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND AS A RESULT SO ARE THE WINDS. EARLIER
SENT OUT A CANCELLATION OF WIND ADVISORY. STILL EXPECT G25MPH INTO
THE EARLY EVENING...ESP ACROSS ERN VT. CLDS CLEARED A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED AND THIS ALLOWED TEMPS TO PEAK INTO THE MID 40S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE ST LAWRENCE AND CHAMPLAIN
VALLEYS. NO MAJOR COLD AIR IN WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...SO
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...FALLING INTO THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH
TEMPERATURES.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING ACROSS ONTARIO...JUST NORTH OF THE
GT LAKES AND IS MOVG SOUTHEAST. CANADIAN RADAR MOSAICS AND SFC OBS
SHOW SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURING. HAVE PAINTED IN SOME
LOW POPS (15-25%) ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS
OVERNIGHT. WHATEVER MAY FALL FROM THE SKY WILL NOT BE HEAVY OR
SUBSTANTIAL. ELSEWHERE ACROSS VT...SHOULD BE A PARTLY/MOSTLY CLDY
NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM EST SATURDAY...SUNDAY STILL LOOKING TRANQUIL AS WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. WENT WITH A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH AGAIN WILL TOP OUT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS FOR
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER/ST LAWRENCE
RIVER EARLY MONDAY. NOT A VERY STRONG SYSTEM NOR DOES IT HAVE A
LOT OF MOISTURE (LOOKING AT ABOUT 1/4 TO 1/3 INCH OF QPF) HOWEVER
THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES LOOK TO BE DICEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
REGION MAY FACE A MIX OF RAIN/FRZ RAIN/SLEET/SNOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR ALOFT WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...HOWEVER
AT THE LOWEST LEVELS COLDER AIR IS LIKELY TO HANG TOUGH. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY THE CASE ACROSS THE VALLEY LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WHERE A COLD NORTHEAST
DRAINAGE FLOW WIND DOWN THE RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
HAVE PAINTED INTO THE FCST GRIDDED DATABASE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION
NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON
WHAT AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A PRECIP MIX. GOOD NEWS IS THAT NOT
EXPECTING A LOT OF PRECIP...SO SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 1-2INCHES. HOWEVER...EVEN A LITTLE BIT OF FREEZING RAIN
CAN MAKE THINGS SLICK.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...COLDER AIR WILL FILTER
IN...AND BY MONDAY EVENING 850MB TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO -8 TO -12C.
SO EXPECT EVERYONE TO SEE THE PRECIP END AS A BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW. AGAIN...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR ACCUMULATIONS. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE...IT MAY ALSO BE A BIT BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON.
LATER FORECASTS WILL HOPEFULLY FINE TUNE THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
PRECIP EVENT...SO PLEASE CHECK BACK HERE LATER.
MONDAY NIGHT LOOKING CLOUDY BUT DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO...IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EST SATURDAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE FORECAST IS FOR STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. EXACT TRACK OF STORM IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN. GFS BRINGS TRACK OF LOW THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK WHICH
WOULD BRING OUR FORECAST AREA MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE LOW TRACK ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE OUR FORECAST AREA WITH MORE COLD AIR AND GIVE US MOSTLY
SNOW FOR THE EVENT. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT...DAYS 6
AND 7...THEREFORE DID NOT GO TO HIGH WITH POPS AS MANY THINGS CAN
AND WILL CHANGE BEFORE THEN. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THEN WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS. MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH SOME POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN
NORTHERN NEW YORK IF THE FLOW TURNS SW ENOUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE REST OF TODAY
IS WHEN THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE. WINDS HAVE BACKED TO
THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE SEEN A DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS...THOUGH STILL GUSTING. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT
AFFECTED OUR REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS CONTINUING TO PULL
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. STRONGEST GRADIENT IS MOVING
EAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. SKIES HAVE BECOME SCT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BECOME BKN AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE
TO AROUND 6-10KTS OUT OF THE WEST. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. CEILINGS AND VISBY WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY...STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STORM BUT SHOULD BE
AFFECTED BY A LARGE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...POSSIBLE MVFR IN
SHOWERS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
