FXUS64 KMOB 241128 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
528 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.AVIATION UPDATE FOR 24/12Z...MOST OF THE AREA SHOWING MVFR JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE WITH LOWEST CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND A
FEW CEILINGS ABOVE 5K OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILLMOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...LIFR POSSIBLE IN SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS AS SQUALL LINE MOVES EAST OVER THE AREA
LATER TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. /11
*************************PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***********************
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS LOUISIANA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE WILL BE AFFECTING LOCAL
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BUT THINK THUNDER WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-MORNING. SHOULD BEGIN TO HAVE SOME STORMS
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BEFORE NOON AND WILL HAVE
SEVERE WORDING SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR LATER THIS MORNING...MIGHT
BE JUST A TAD EARLY BUT CAPE AND HELICITIES WILL BE INCREASING. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE A SQUALL LINE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SWEEP EAST TO BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MOBILE BY 6 PM THEN ON
EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND POINTS NORTH IN THE EARLY EVENING. DO
EXPECT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH TO BE IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT...ENDING FROM THE WEST BEFORE DAWN. EXPECTED
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE SQUALL
LINE...ENOUGH SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE WHERE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS GREATEST...WHICH WILL BE GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI LATE MORNING SOUTHEAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 9 AM AND RUNNING TILL 9 PM TONIGHT.
THIS IS FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF MORE THAN 25 KNOTS AND OR FREQUENT
GUSTS ABOVE 25 KNOTS. /11
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AIRMASS WORKING
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 50S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT OUR NEXT WEATHER
MAKER WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN THE EXTENDED WHEN YET ANOTHER STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF WHICH THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. 13/JC
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN UP UNTIL AT LEAST
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE EAST SOUTHEAST 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH 10 FOOT
SEAS AT THE FEW REPORTING SITES AVAILABLE AND EXPECT SOME INCREASE
IN SPEED AS THE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE PROBABLE. STRONGER WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN
SQUALLS NEAR THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME WEST THEN NORTHWEST FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING...AROUND 6 PM OVER THE WESTERN LEGS
AND CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT NEAR DESTIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS STARTING FRIDAY MORNING. /11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 69 43 53 30 / 100 70 10 10
PENSACOLA 67 45 52 35 / 100 90 10 10
DESTIN 67 50 57 42 / 90 90 10 10
EVERGREEN 66 43 52 29 / 100 100 10 10
WAYNESBORO 68 37 50 28 / 100 60 10 10
CAMDEN 66 42 50 27 / 90 100 10 10
CRESTVIEW 69 45 58 31 / 100 100 10 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...
COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER
MOBILE...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER MOBILE...
WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: GEORGE...GREENE...PERRY...STONE...AND
WAYNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
FROM 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
