FXUS64 KAMA 262323 AAA
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
523 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE REGION NOW WILL SLOWLY
ERODE...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 06Z...THANKS TO A BUILDING SURFACE
HIGH. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN NW OR N ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES...KGUY AND KDHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR KAMA AND THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE...WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY W AND LIGHT...LESS THAN 10 KTS.
SJOHNSON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON ARE A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE
VARIABLE SNOW COVER AND THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IN
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECT WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN MOST
SITUATIONS DUE TO LOW WIND SPEEDS. IN CONTRAST...WINDS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS ARE STILL BREEZY AND GUSTY DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE FRINGE EFFECTS OF THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.
SOME RIDGING...AND WARMING...IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY AS THE AREA
FALLS BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. BY TUESDAY...THE PANHANDLES WILL COME
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM NOW NEAR THE WEST COAST.
A GOOD SHOT OF MOISTURE IS INDICATED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY
BY THE GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH THE GFS SEEMS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE
EURO SEEMS TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OTHER MODELS. WE WILL GO WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF AND WILL
PROBABLY RAISE THE POPS ABOVE WHAT WE HAVE NOW.
FOR THE LATE WEEK...THE AREA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN
CONTROL. BY NEXT WEEKEND...A WAVE MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE FLOW
AND MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE LOW THIS WEEK. HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. A MIDWEEK SYSTEM COULD
BRING MORE MOISTURE TO THE PANHANDLES.
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
16/08
