FXUS64 KEWX 291157
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
557 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
A PASSING JET STREAK ALOFT AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 25-35
KTS HAS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT A FEW
PROTECTED AREAS AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES HAVE NOTED LIFR CONDITIONS
FROM LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON
AREA RADARS, BUT LOOK TO PRODUCE MOSTLY AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
TWO. MVFR CIGS SHOULD LAST INTO PART OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
RISING INTO VFR LEVELS; THE DRT AREA SHOULD LOW CIGS INTO IFR IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TAF SITES GENERALLY FROM 01-03Z
WITH INITIAL FRONTAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MAINLY AFFECT THE AUS
AND SAT/SSF AREAS. LATE IN THE TAF PERIODS, SOME OVERRUNNING LIGHT
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO THE AREA WITH CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWERING BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2009/
DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST AS FAR TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES OF WINTER
TYPE PRECIPITATION ARE CONCERNED, ESPECIALLY IN THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED PATCHES OF DRIZZLE THIS MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ENABLING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE 70S. HAVE GONE UP TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE HILL COUNTRY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND REACHES THE COASTAL PLAINS BY MIDNIGHT AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER
SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED WEST TO WIDESPREAD EAST SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TO KEEP RAIN AND SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO SONORA STATE OF MEXICO. THE
UPPER LOW MOVES TO NEAR THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN TEXAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES MAINTAINING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO CENTRAL TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO EASTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RAINS END FROM EAST
TO WEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY
THE MET, IS HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SINCE ACTUAL MODEL TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH COLDER.
HAVE GONE NEAR THE MODEL TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE UP TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER FOR MONDAY HIGHS AND UP TO 4 DEGREES COOLER FOR LOWS
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY. ALL MODEL
SOUNDINGS KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR A COLD RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM NEVER SHOWS A SNOW SOUNDING, EXCEPT
BRIEFLY AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THE ECMWF AND GFS DO SHOW A
SNOW SOUNDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
FORECAST SOUNDING NO LONGER SHOW SLEET AS A POSSIBILITY. HAVE
MENTIONED A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
SPREADING TO ALL OF THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
ONLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO WARM GROUNDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FAST MOVING
UPPER SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY MAY GENERATE A
FEW SPRINKLES, ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES MAKE A SLOW WARMING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 48 49 42 47 / 20 80 40 60 70
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 49 50 42 49 / 20 80 40 60 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 49 49 42 49 / 10 80 60 70 70
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 45 48 41 42 / 20 70 30 50 70
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 49 50 43 49 / - 50 80 50 70
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 47 48 43 45 / 30 80 30 50 70
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 49 50 42 49 / 10 70 80 70 70
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 49 49 42 49 / 20 80 50 60 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 51 51 44 48 / 20 80 60 60 80
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 49 49 42 49 / 10 80 70 70 70
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 50 50 42 49 / 10 80 80 70 70
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
04/18
