FXUS64 KBRO 061417
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
818 AM CST SUN DEC 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES 
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE 
MODERATE AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
AND A CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE CWA AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT 
FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THEN BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND 
NORTH ON MONDAY REMAINING LIGHT. THE WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST 
AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY BECOMING MODERATE AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON 
AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT 
WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES 
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY THEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST 
ON THURSDAY REMAINING LIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH 
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND THE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE 
NORTH. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE LIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
CWA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE 
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE FAR 
OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS 
THE WESTERN GULF HAS STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR A 
PORTION OF A LOW LEVEL JET TO MIX TO THE SEAS SURFACE. THE CORE OF 
THE JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS EXITING THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. WINDS HOWEVER REMAIN 
MODERATELY STRONG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND INCREASE OVER THE 
LAGUNA. FETCH AND DURATION OF STRONG WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG 
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEAS TO REACH 7 FEET SO SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS. AS 
GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER TONIGHT WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY 
BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER 
NORTH TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING 
WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH 
THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG EAST FETCH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORIES MAY OCCUR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
&&

.AVIATION...AS A LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD 
LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST 
PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS INCLUDING THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THIS 
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR 
CIGS TO RISE TO LOW END VFR. PATCHY IFR IS OCCURRING AT KBRO AND 
KHRL THIS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY. LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD IS PRODUCING 
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THIS MORNING BUT AS THE CORE SHIFTS OFFSHORE 
THE WIND SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER ENOUGH OF THE JET REMAINS 
OVER THE REGION ALLOWING WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE LATER THIS 
MORNING AND AFTERNOON INCREASING SURFACE WINDS TO GUSTY LEVELS. 
PREDOMINATE  BKN TO OCCASIONAL SCT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND EARLY 
AFTERNOON GIVE WAY TO VFR THEN WITH SOUTH FLOW PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT 
CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR MONDAY MORNING. PATCHY MVFR 
VSBY IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON CST FOR 
GMZ170-175. 
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS....63
MARINE/AVIATION...59
MESOSCALE...CAMPBELL